Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2845 · MDW → OMA
departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at MDW that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.