Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2851 LANDED 12:43 AM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 2851 · MDW → BWI

took off 10:23 PM CT · landed 12:43 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

BWI (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2851 · MDW → BWI

Odds over time