Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2862 · MDW → PHX
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 30%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.23 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.