Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2863 · MDW → PHX
departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 27%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.