Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2863 · PHX → ABQ
departs 10:55 PM MT · arrives 1:10 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at ABQ that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.