Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2866 · PNS → MDW
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
10am departures from PNS are usually not late
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.53 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.