Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2876 · RNO → LGB
departs 5:40 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 40%
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGB that day
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.