Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2877 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 2877 · ROC → MCO

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ROC that day

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.47 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2877 · ROC → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?