Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2879
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2879 · OAK → HNL
departs 11:25 AM PT · arrives 1:45 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
OAK is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.