Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2910
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 2910 · MDW → TPA
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 11:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±2 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at MDW that day
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.