Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2912 · MDW → TUL
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Mon 10/5 17%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.