Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 296 · ELP → SAT
departs 10:25 PM MT · arrives 12:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
10pm departures from ELP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at ELP that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.