Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2986 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 2986 · PHX → SAT

departs 11:00 AM MT · arrives 3:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2986 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?