Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 298
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 298 · AUS → ELP
departs 9:05 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 36%
Sat 10/10 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±2 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.