Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3020
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3020 · MSY → STL
departs 7:25 AM CT · arrives 9:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 14%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into STL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.