Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3023 · MSY → TPA
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
−30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −30 pts in 24h
−30 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from MSY are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.