Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3049
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3049 · RIC → BWI
departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.