Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3087
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3087 · OAK → SNA
departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 3:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.