Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 309 · SMF → PDX
departs 9:50 PM PT · arrives 11:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.