Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3105 · OGG → SMF
departs 10:50 AM HT · arrives 6:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.