Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3106 LANDED 10:31 PM PT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 3106 · SMF → SAN

took off 9:24 PM PT · landed 10:31 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3106 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time