Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3157 LANDED 8:25 PM PT, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 3157 · OAK → BUR

took off 7:35 PM PT · landed 8:25 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3157 · OAK → BUR

Odds over time