Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3161 · LAX → SFO
departs 5:20 PM PT · arrives 6:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 37%
Fri 10/9 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.