Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3170 LANDED 9:56 PM PT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 3170 · OAK → LAS

took off 8:49 PM PT · landed 9:56 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3170 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time