Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3182
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3182 · ORF → BNA
departs 11:25 AM ET · arrives 12:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
11am departures from ORF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.