Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3242 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3242 · MSY → MCO

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 9am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precip0.67 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3242 · MSY → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?