Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3274 · PHX → HNL

departs 9:30 AM MT · arrives 12:55 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3274 · PHX → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?