Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3283
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
WN 3283 · PHX → LAS
departs 4:00 PM MT · arrives 5:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.