Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3401 LANDED 9:53 PM MT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

WN 3401 · STS → PHX

took off 8:20 PM PT · landed 9:53 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Visibility down to 1.25 mi forecast at STS that day

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day

Weather at each end

STS (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3401 · STS → PHX

Odds over time