Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3406 · STL → MKE
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
41%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.