Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3410 · PVD → MDW
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 36%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.