Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3416 · BWI → MCO
departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.