Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3421 · RDU → BNA
departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 34%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.