Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3436 LANDED 7:59 PM PT, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 3436 · SNA → SJC

took off 7:07 PM PT · landed 7:59 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

↓ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3436 · SNA → SJC

Odds over time