Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3473 · DEN → MAF
departs 8:55 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MAF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MAF (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.