Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3498 · SAN → ELP
departs 8:10 PM PT · arrives 11:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 58%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.