Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3500 · SAN → GEG
departs 8:25 AM PT · arrives 11:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−26 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.