Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3511 · LAX → SAT
departs 2:35 PM PT · arrives 7:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 39%
Mon 10/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 1.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.