Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3538 · SLC → PHX
departs 7:00 PM MT · arrives 7:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.