Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3550
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3550 · SAN → SMF
departs 7:30 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.