Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3566 · SEA → SMF
departs 6:05 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
34%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.