Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3587 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 3587 · SAT → PHX

departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 11:20 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±6 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.8 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ 11am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.79 in

PHX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3587 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?