Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3759 · SMF → BNA
departs 11:05 PM PT · arrives 5:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,433 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.