Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3768
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3768 · SMF → BUR
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
41%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
15%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
15%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.