Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3786 · SMF → LAS
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
33%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
33%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.