WN 3815 · SJC → LAS

took off 11:55 PM PT · landed 12:53 AM PT (scheduled 11:32 PM PT → 1:18 AM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SJC that day

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3815 · SJC → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?