Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3818 · SMF → SAN
departs 9:30 AM PT · arrives 11:00 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
9am departures from SMF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.