Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3821 · DEN → EUG
departs 8:55 PM MT · arrives 10:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 53%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at EUG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EUG?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EUG
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EUG (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.