Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3828 · SMF → SLC
departs 6:35 PM PT · arrives 9:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.