Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3834
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3834 · SMF → SNA
departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.